--- title: "Rolling forecast updates, proposed from what changed — Rebase" description: "Rebase finds what changed since your last forecast, works out the financial impact and proposes updates to the model your team already uses, for review." url: https://rebasehq.ai/solutions/forecast-updates language: en --- Forecast updates # Your forecast should change when the business does. Rebase identifies changes since the last forecast, investigates their financial impact and proposes updates to the model your finance team already uses. Your model stays yours. Rebase keeps it informed. [See a forecast update](https://rebasehq.ai/contact-us) [Talk to us](mailto:m@rebasehq.ai) Illustration: Rebase working against a finance team's own forecast model, FY26 Forecast Model.xlsx, version 12, last updated 1 September; the company's fiscal year is the calendar year, so Q4 FY26 is October to December 2026. Asked whether anything since version 12 changes Q4, it lists three changes: hiring that ran ahead of the headcount plan, recurring, +$1.8M in Q4, from payroll journals in Business Central and Headcount Plan.xlsx; a new committed cloud infrastructure spend, recurring, +$1.1M, from the amended contract and Business Central; and the annual conference, a one-off Q3 overspend, $0 in Q4. It proposes Q4 updates: payroll from $22.6M to $24.4M, cloud infrastructure from $8.5M to $9.6M, and marketing unchanged at $6.3M, a net +$2.9M. Status: needs review by Megan Carter, FP&A manager. Nothing in the model changes until she accepts. ## The forecast starts getting stale as soon as you finish it. Version 12 went out on 1 September. By the end of the month the business had moved five times, and the model still said what it said on day one. Illustration: September at the company, as a timeline of date, event and classification. 1 September: forecast version 12 published, Q4 operating expenses at $46.3M. 4 September: payroll differs, with 22 people paid ahead of the dates the model assumes; recurring. 11 September: cloud contract amended, with new committed spend from October; recurring. 16 September: a large renewal slips from September to October with no signed date; uncertain, so Rebase proposes no change and asks the account owner. 21 September: the annual conference closes $0.9M over budget; one-off. 30 September: Q3 closes with operating expenses at $46.2M against a $42.0M budget, a $4.2M variance to investigate. Through all of it the model stays at version 12. Traditional process 1. Wait for the October cycle 2. Investigate every change by hand 3. The forecast catches up Weeks after the business moved With Rebase 1. A change happens 2. Detected 3. Investigated 4. Quantified 5. Proposed While the change is still news, with its evidence Planning software can calculate the forecast. Someone still has to work out what changed. ## Rebase watches what changed. One change, followed through. Each stage takes the last one's output as its input, so the proposal arrives with its working. Illustration: one change followed through six stages. Detect: payroll shows 22 people ahead of the dates the model plans. Investigate: 9 account executives started on 22 July, planned for 1 November, and 13 more. Classify: recurring, because they stay on payroll. Quantify: +$1.8M in Q4 FY26, with the model's own logic. Propose: payroll from $22.6M to $24.4M. Review: needs review by Megan Carter, FP&A manager. ## Changes that should reach the forecast sooner. Each kind of change shows up somewhere before it shows up in the forecast. Rebase reads it there and names the line it should move. Illustration: six kinds of change, where Rebase sees each and the forecast line it moves. Headcount, from payroll journals and the headcount roster, moves payroll. Revenue, from Salesforce opportunities and billing, moves revenue. Vendor commitments, from contracts and AP invoices, move committed spend. Operating expenses, from the general ledger, move department expenses. Cloud and usage costs, from cloud invoices and usage reports, move cloud infrastructure. Cash, from bank activity and AR ageing, moves the cash plan. Worked example ## The variance that should change Q4. Q3 closed $4.2M over budget. The question for the forecast isn't why. It's how much of it is still there in October. Illustration: Q3 FY26 operating expenses, July to September 2026, $4.2M over a $42.0M budget, taken from variance to forecast. The five drivers are headcount +$2.1M, cloud infrastructure +$1.4M, the annual conference +$0.9M, professional services −$0.5M and other +$0.3M. Rebase classifies what carries into Q4: headcount +$1.8M, cloud infrastructure +$1.1M, the conference nothing, professional services −$0.3M and other +$0.3M, $2.9M in all, while $1.3M does not carry. Services and other are already in forecast version 12, so it proposes two updates: payroll +$1.8M and cloud infrastructure +$1.1M, with marketing unchanged because the conference was one-off. ## Keep the planning system. Remove the manual investigation around it. The model stays where it is, with its formulas, its assumptions and its owners. Rebase does the work of finding out what it should know. Your planning software - Stores the model - Maintains assumptions - Runs forecast calculations - Supports planning workflows Rebase - Finds what changed - Investigates why - Classifies the change - Quantifies the impact - Proposes updates - Attaches evidence Rebase does not replace the planning system as the system of record for the forecast. ## Nothing changes until finance accepts it. Every proposal carries its reason and its evidence, and waits for a named reviewer. Illustration: one proposed forecast update under review. Payroll for Q4 FY26, October to December 2026, from $22.6M to $24.4M, +$1.8M. The reason: 22 people are on payroll ahead of the dates the model assumes, 9 account executives from July planned for November, 5 analytics engineers from August planned for January 2027, and 8 support specialists the plan did not include. The engineers who started in July were budgeted from 1 September, so they do not move Q4. The evidence is payroll journals in Business Central, the headcount roster and Headcount Plan.xlsx. Prepared by Rebase; reviewer Megan Carter, FP&A manager; status needs review. She can accept, edit or reject it; accepting approves it for version 13 of the team's own model. Rebase proposes. Finance decides. ## Every forecast change has a reason. Each version keeps what changed, why, who proposed it and who approved it, so the forecast can be explained a quarter later. Select a version. Illustration: the forecast model's versions as a timeline; Q4 means Q4 FY26, October to December 2026. Version 10, published 1 August: Q2 actuals rolled forward, Q4 left at its $45.7M budget, proposed by Megan Carter, approved by Sarah Chen. Version 11, published 15 August: sales commissions +$0.6M in Q4 because revenue was running above plan in July, proposed by Rebase, approved by Sarah Chen; Q4 $46.3M. Version 12, current since 1 September: professional services −$0.3M and other +$0.3M, proposed by Rebase, approved by Megan Carter; Q4 still $46.3M. Version 13, proposed on 30 September: payroll +$1.8M and cloud infrastructure +$1.1M with marketing unchanged, proposed by Rebase and needing Megan Carter's review; Q4 would be $49.2M. Version 13 is shown open. After version 13 [ Management reporting The approved Q4 outlook goes into the September pack. ](https://rebasehq.ai/solutions/management-reporting) [ Scenario analysis What if hiring pauses for 60 days? The year's variance falls from $8.1M to $4.6M. ](https://rebasehq.ai/solutions/scenario-analysis) Questions ## Where Rebase starts and stops. - ### Does Rebase replace our planning software? No. Your planning system or model stays the system of record for the forecast. Rebase works out what should change in it. - ### Does Rebase generate forecasts using AI? No. Rebase identifies business changes, investigates their impact and proposes updates. The forecast itself comes from your model, its assumptions and its logic. - ### Can Rebase update the forecast automatically? No. Rebase proposes each change with its reason and evidence. FP&A accepts, edits or rejects it, and carries what it accepts into its own model. - ### How does Rebase know something changed? It compares the assumptions in your forecast with new information in your connected systems: payroll journals, contracts and invoices in the ERP, the pipeline in the CRM. - ### Can we see why a forecast assumption changed? Yes. Each proposal keeps its reason, its evidence, who reviewed it and the version of the model it applies to. [ The product Rebase FP&A Investigate what changed, carry it into the outlook and model what happens next without rebuilding the context. Explore Rebase FP&A ](https://rebasehq.ai/product/fpa) Other FP&A solutions - [ Explain performance Find out why a number moved before it reaches the forecast. ](https://rebasehq.ai/solutions/explain-performance) - [ Management reporting Put the updated outlook into the monthly pack. ](https://rebasehq.ai/solutions/management-reporting) - [ Model business decisions Model what happens if hiring slows. ](https://rebasehq.ai/solutions/scenario-analysis) ## Bring your current forecast. We'll show you which changes Rebase would investigate and what updates it would propose. [Book a working session](https://rebasehq.ai/contact-us)